01.11.2009
Professionals advise to wait from the USA and to invest in the markets of the Western Europe
Experts IntermarkSavills are convinced: despite the fact that what today the habitation in the USA can be bought twice more cheaply, than two years ago, investors in the foreign real estate should pay attention to the markets of the Western Europe. «On them unlike American (it is artificial recovered by the government) there were already stabilisation signs», — Igor Indriksons, the director of department of investments into the foreign real estate declares.
In the press release extended by the company to be told: «Before hazardously and selflessly to buy up record-breaking fallen in price real estate of the USA, it is necessary to pay attention to that, where exactly there was a landslide falling of the market. In the majority it is primary peregretye resort zones or states where the record quantity of subprime-credits (both to investors, and insolvent borrowers has been given out). The Great demand also has caused that improbable price hike. When the credit bubble was blew off, the habitation has fallen in price twice. But it does not mean that it should rise in price so in the future».
According to a source, in the USA, begun in the spring, it is possible to explain lifting of the prices for the real estate seasonal and technical factors. «In the summer the American market traditionally revives. And to restart the hypothecary conveyor, the government has redeemed MBS (Mortgage-backed securities — the bonds provided with pools of hypothecary mortgages) for the sum more of 1 bln. of dollars, thereby having removed all risks from banks and taking them on itself. If to look at a course of futures we will see that on 2010 and 2011 it only falls concerning indicators of this year. It means that the informed players of the market expect the further reduction of prices. Therefore on the nearest half a year can be made cëåäóþùèé the forecast: that the rise in prices will proceed, is 5 % of chances, 10 % — that there will be a stabilisation, and 85 % — that falling will renew».
One more indicator of that about stabilisation of the market of the real estate of the USA to speak while very much early, it is possible to consider that fact that large corporate investors do not hurry up to buy the real estate but only sell it. «If the fallen in price real estate in the USA had at present growth potential, instead of huge risk of continuation of falling the same fund Equity Residential (to which posesses the considerable quantity of apartments in the USA) would buy up everything that is on sale as it has made it in crisis of the beginning 90 with the commercial real estate. But Equity Residential has not bought still any unit of the real estate, neither for the first, nor for the second quarter 2009, but has sold 23 complexes for a total sum of 353 million dollars», — tells Igor Indriksons.
According to dear expert IntermarkSavills, the situation in the markets of the real estate of the Western Europe inspires bolshy optimism. «Last three-four months practically in all European countries we see restoration of the financial markets and the real estate markets. Today the West European banks not only increase crediting volumes, but also facilitate process of their reception. The factor of the given out mortgage from the object price» also grows, — he speaks.
Further the information on the concrete countries is resulted. In England on the official statistics four months the rise in prices for the real estate is successively observed and that is important, healthy lifting of a sales volume.
Austria and Switzerland feel better than other western markets. «The bank system of these two countries did not use sekjuritizatsii, therefore market growth here and did not stop», — is told in release.
Belgium also has endured the known period without special losses and now is actively restored. Banks here keep hypothecary loans on a minimum level.
France has not strongly suffered from crisis, since. sekjuritizatsija bank system it was used here to a lesser degree, than, for example, in Great Britain and Ireland, and subprime-credits did not stand out.
«Almost all these countries have shown gross national product growth. It allows to draw a conclusion that the beginning of restoration of all sectors of economy here will proceed and to type a course smoothly. The third quarter successively banks report with very good profit, and bolshy its percent is provided with countries of Western Europe. It is possible to tell with confidence that all bad for them already behind, and is good news to investors», — optimistically finishes the the report the expert of company IntermarkSavills.
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